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​5 Market Predictions for Nicotine/Tobacco Products 2024

10th May 2024

5 Market Predictions for Nicotine/Tobacco Products 2024

  1. Prefilled pods/cartridges will take the number one spot
  2. Cigalikes and Vape mods will rise again
  3. New laws could create a black market vape surge
  4. Manufacturers will push to innovate
  5. Shortfills will decrease in popularity due to price hike

The landscape for vape products is an ever-changing and ever-moving industry, which is no greatsurprise, considering the shifts over the past two decades. Flashing back to 2012 when V2 Cigs started, our brand started as a small business offering some of the very first cigalikes available in the UK.

As the market evolved, so did we, as we now serve thousands of customers across the UK. But even we couldn’t predict the massive changes and game-changing developments from brands such as Elf Bar, Vaporesso and Innokin, which have altered the vape market entirely – for the better in most cases!

Blue pod vaping device with spare pods

1. Goodbye Disposable Vapes – Refillable and Prefilled Pod Kits Fill the Market Gap

There is not long left to go of disposable vapes. Following a few short years of meteoric rise that saw them quickly become the number one go-to type of vape, the 2025 ban will fast approach. What does this mean for the industry and its vaping community?

Because of the low cost of single-use vapes, their colourful packaging and their availability in every street corner sweet shop, naturally certain businesses were targeting youthful vapers who may have never smoked.

Often costing under £5 per bar, and impossible to enforce considering the millions entering the UK each year, it created a negative buzz about vaping in the media and among concerned parents.

Now we will see from April 2025 the ban on disposable vapes in the UK. So what will this mean and what will the replacement be?

We predict that pod kits, which have boomed in the past few years, as the number one type of vape kit for the majority.

Why? Following the past two decades of vape technology evolution, we have reached the point where pod kits are a cross between the innovation of mods and the convenience of disposables. It’s the best combination of the high selling points of each type.

You have advanced technology, alarger battery size than first-generation cigalikes, and features such as adjustable wattage. Meanwhile, pods can still be disposed of like single-use all-in-one kits butimportantly the battery remains.

This ticks the box for environmental lobbyists who were hoping for the ban of disposables and the higher price point is more likely to keep it away from teenagers who have never smoked.

Quote from Ella

2. Cigalikes and Vape Mods Will Re-Emerge as First Choices

For many years our customers have loved the simplicity and likeness to cigarettes that the Vsavi starter kit provides. From the very beginning of your journey when you put down a cigarette and stop smoking, you need a nicotine replacement tool that will help to prevent any relapse or temptation.

While NRTs like nicotine patches and gum can help some quit, sometimes it’s not enough. Studies show that vaping can be twice as effective as other NRT and cigalikes are one of the easiest ways to stop smoking, reducing your nicotine at your own pace and eventually quitting both for good.

Cigalikes forsome took its place as a useful option but lacked the innovation of a pod kit or the sheer advanced features and customisation of a vape mod. But now, following the impending ban on disposables, vapers are seeking something just as convenient.

The cartridges themselves are prefilled and ready to go out of the pack and can be purchased in quantities of 5, 10, 20,40, and 100, in 14 different flavour options, from fruity to tobacco and menthol selections.

With the look and feel of a cigarette in the hand and the disposable nature of the cartridges, it’s an affordable alternative to smoking and closely resembles the convenient nature of disposable vapes, which are on the way out and will soon no longer be available.

Another slightly forgotten type of vape kit is the vape mod. Between 2015-20, it flourished in an industry crying out for further innovation. All of a sudden there were tons of kits on the market that with a beefy look and customisable tanks could produce airflow like nothing seen before and produce stellar flavour at the push of a button.

However, over the past few years, vape manufacturers have innovated to another level by producing compact pod vape kits that can produce just as much cloud with a tiny form factor.

Vape mods did look like going out of fashion, but with the announcement of the disposable ban and a hike in e-liquid tax prices, many may turn to external battery mods and high VG e-liquids that can produce lots of cloud and low nicotine solutions, with high-quality mods that are built to last longer.

3. Concerns for Illicit Black Market Vapes and E-Liquids

What ingredients are in a bottle of vape juice? Is an electrically powered vape device, whether built with an internal or space for an external battery or batteries going to be safe in my pocket?

These are just some of the questions that vapers ask regarding safety before and after the use of a product. Fake vapes or illegally produced and sold e-liquids can be dangerous and it’s important to spot the signs before purchase and most certainly before use.

Why is there a concern? For the past few years, we have seen the emergence of the highly popular disposable vape. One that includes the battery, coil accessory acting as the heating element through electrical current and prefilled e-liquid ready to be vapourised.

Predominantly produced in China or the US, millions are shipped every week into the UK and have been very difficult to track legally through customs. This has led to a massive number of illegal vapes – with two million seized by the UK Trading Standards between 2022-23 alone.

Every manufacturer must follow the Tobacco and Related Products Regulations (TRPR’s) set out in 2016 which explained that there must be:

  • 20 mg/ml: maximum nicotine strength of e-liquids
  • No more than 2ml: maximum tank capacity of an e-cigarette
  • 10ml: maximum volume of nicotine-containing e-liquid for sale in one refill container
  • Labelling requirements and health warnings for specific risk groups

All products created and planned for sale by legitimately run businesses that hope to manufacture and then sell to consumers in the UK must register products with the Medicine and Healthcare Regulatory Agency (MHRA).This must be done six months in advance, and while there are good examples of brands such as Innokin or Lost Mary following the rules, this is not always the case.

Too often we’re seeing seizures in warehouses of illegal vapes, with numbers growing rapidly in seizures between 2021 and 2024, which coincided with the rise of disposables. That’s one of the main reasons why the UK government recently announced the ban on disposable vapes from April 2025.

Measures such as a new illicit enforcement squad, courtesy of £3 million in government funding, and large fines for any business, with ‘Trading Standards empowered to act with fines ‘on the spot’ to tackle underage tobacco and vape sales, building on a maximum £2,500 fine that local authorities can already impose’ - just some measures to help counteract the illicit vape market.

4. Further Vape Manufacturer Innovation on the Horizon

The vape kit and e-liquid market is at an important crossroads. Disposables are out and although they have proved an effective method to help people quit smoking, they’re also limited in terms of customisation.

We have seen thousands of different disposable vapes from the likes of Lost Mary, Elf Bar, andGeek Bar (the list goes on) that have not pushed the realms of creativity. Instead, they have been quick to make – mass-produced items that mean recycling the battery after a few days of use.

It’s meant a heavy push from environmentalists to ban disposables and the intensely sweet candy-inspired flavours and bright packaging have attracted underage vapers.

Now the vape industry needs to get back to what it did best before the emergence of disposables. Meaning, design practical and well-built reusable kits that are more sustainable, andbetter for the environment but easy enough to use after smoking.

The type of device that can be picked up and vaped on the go. Something which is easy to fill and saves money in the long run. A compact device that fits in the pocket but looks stylish in the hand.

Now it’s up to brands such as Vaporesso and Innokin, who seem to be leading the way in refillable vape kit innovation, to continue to push the boundaries of what’s possible.

5. Shortfills Priced Out of Popularity

Once seen as a workaround for TPD regulations back in 2016, Shortfills were seen as the low-nicotine affordable solution for those who wanted greater control over what they vaped.

After new laws prevented no more than 10ml nicotine e-liquids available for sale, the vape industry and its creative manufacturers designed the idea of 50ml or 100ml nicotine-free bottles of vape juice with a gap for a nicotine shot.

Initially, it worked out a better price to buy 50ml than five 10ml bottles, also meaning less to carry around and thanks to the higher quantity of vape juice to nicotine ratio, it provided a high cloud and flavour alternative to cigarettes with lower nicotine.

However, following the UK government’s suggested changes to vaping products, with a tax duty on liquids, Shortfills could be a thing of the past. While still under consultation, the proposed vaping duty tier structure would certainly alter how e-liquids are purchased moving forward. Based on the proposed changes, it would be £1.00 for each 10ml of nicotine-free e-liquid found in shortfills. This would mean a whopping £5 increase on a 50ml bottle and £10 on a 100ml shortfill bottle. There is also a £2 increase on a 10ml e-liquid containing between 0.1-10.9 mg/ml of nicotine and £3 for 10ml e-liquids which have 11mg/ml of nicotine or more.

This tiered structure could be taken two ways – it could be encouraging people to vape less by putting the price up on higher quantities of e-liquid.

Alternatively, the proposed new prices look to be encouraging people to spend less on higher nicotine, which seems to send mixed messages from a government that wants a smokefree society in the UK by 2030, is offering a million free vape kits and by all intentions encourages smokers to quit smoking straight away and for adults recommends e-cigarettes as an alternative.

Final Thoughts

There are still going to be many twists and turns within the vape industry. It’s a pivotal time for the current government which is looking to implement changes that puts it in a positive light ahead of the upcoming general elections. Making waves in the tobacco and vape sector is one way of swaying public votes – especially when doing so by influencing the media.

Banning disposable vapes could be a step in the right direction if it positively impacts the environment and helps those who want to quit smoking turn towards an effective refillable or prefilled pod kit alternative.

But time will tell whether it’s had a positive impact on the six million current smokers or swayed the current four million vapers back to cigarettes or the growing black market vape movement.

If whatever government is in power by 2025 doesn’t send the right message to society then it could be a massive step backwards in their goal of a smoking prevalence below 5% in UK society by 2030.